CRM Plus — a win probability that says why

• A probability that means somethingIt starts from the stage's real rate and adds live signals.
• Every factor explainedWhich signal moved the probability by how many points, in writing.
• A loss teachesA lost reason is required; the analysis and the model learn from it.
• No forgotten opportunityAn untouched opportunity is flagged after 21 days.

Why it was needed

Measured on 2026-10-13: the core's built-in estimate had learnt from 12 won and 3 lost records and said 93–99% for every opportunity; its daily recompute job ships inactive, so the figures had not been refreshed for months. A number that gives everyone a high probability says nothing.

The PORTWARE probability engine

• It starts from the stage. Each stage's default win rate is the starting point (a prior worth eight closed records), so little data does not swing it to an extreme.
• It adds evidence. Evidence from the opportunity's fields and live signals: when the last contact was, whether there is a next step, whether the closing date has passed, whether the customer replied, whether a quotation was sent, what the customer's history is.
• It says why. Under the probability, what it rests on; the tooltip lists each factor's effect in points. The sales manager does not argue with the number but reads the next step.

The core's own engine is one setting away.

Opportunity back to lead

The standard core converts only lead to opportunity. Convert to Lead (a form button and a list and kanban action) turns an opportunity opened too early back into a lead with every value kept; won, lost, archived opportunities and those with a confirmed sales order are refused.

Lost reasons and rotting

A lost reason is required (a setting) and six common reasons ship ready; the win/loss analysis and the probability model both learn from it. Where no stage had a rotting threshold yet, untouched opportunities are flagged after 21 days.